When Will Ignite Consultants Return to the Office?
Everyone has talked your ear off about it. But when will things be back to normal or a new normal? When will we all be able to get back to the office? Whether you have been dreading it, looking forward to it, or scared of getting back to it, we will be back.
With some simple guidance with the help of McKinsey & Company, we can narrow it down to two probable endpoints.
Epidemiological endpoint
The epidemiological endpoint is when herd immunity is present in a population because there is a large enough portion of society that is immune to Covid-19 to prevent widespread and ongoing transmission of the virus. Health interventions will be a thing of the past like quarantining, wearing masks in public, and building capacity limits. Regular vaccinations may be required, but the threat of a widespread pandemic is all but gone.
The speed at which this endpoint will occur depends on a host of factors:
- The arrival, efficacy, and adoption of Covid-19 vaccines
- Level of natural immunity of the population (estimated between 90-300 million globally)
- Cross immunity and partial immunity from exposure to similar viruses
- Regional difference in how people interact with one another
With this information, McKinsey predicts, "an epidemiological endpoint is most likely to be achieved in the third or fourth quarter of 2021." This point can fluctuate, however, as two of the main factors in reaching this herd immunity is the efficacy of a vaccine (which would typically take years to develop, but has been fast-tracked through testing globally) and the rate of natural immunity in the population.
Transition to Normalcy
Okay, so reaching herd immunity sounds great and all but when will be back to “normal” or the "new normal"? McKinsey predicts an earlier transition to normalcy than the epidemiological endpoint, "the potential to transition to normalcy sooner, possibly in the first or second quarter of 2021."
Covid-19 has begun to feel like the new normal for quite some time now. After those preliminary stages of quarantine and normalization of wearing masks in public, we have grown numb to it. We see the numbers racking up, we know people who have experienced it, and we see the effects it had on our local businesses. While these are all terrible things, the slow transition we felt to the new normal, will slowly revert in the other direction.
So, what are the key factors in determining the transition to normalcy?
- People have confidence in doing what they used to without endangering others (bars, theaters, sports arenas, restaurants are filled again)
- Progress towards herd immunity
- Individual effectiveness of the country’s health crisis response (what is the infection rate of the population?)
- Accurate widely available testing
- Better clinical management of Covid-19
- Public confidence there are no significant long-term health effects of the virus
As mentioned previously, this is likely to occur before herd immunity is reached. Once herd immunity exists, we will have already begun the transition back to normalcy. If you were looking for an end to the pandemic this year, you were optimistic, but out of luck.
You can expect our Ignite Consultants to be on-site sometime late next year when all the dust settles. We will be back, everyone will be back, and we will be able to breathe on each other again. So, get ready for that morning coffee breath in your face, because it means we're back.
For more information on this topic you can find the full article here.
